Forecasting Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

Forecasting Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Introduction This chapter introduces the background of time series and the importance of forecasting. The  motivation behind the project is elaborated and finally the aims and objectives are given. 1.1 Background Time series can be defined as a sequence of observations or measurements that are taken  at equally spaced timed interval (Xu, 2012). Hence, it is a stochastic process and can be  expressed as (Xu, 2012): x(t) = xi; i = 1; 2; :::;N: (1.1) Some examples of time series data include yearly profit, monthly recorded temperature,  hourly electrical consumption. Time series are classified into two categories mainly the stationary time series and  non stationary time series. Stationary time series consist of data which remain fixed irrespective  of the whereabouts. A stationary process is one where the mean, variance  and autocorrelation do not vary with time (Nau, 2014). For example, the financial stock  change of Mauritius remains constant in Mauritius as well as in any other place in the  world. Non stationary time series on the contrary involve data that keeps changing over  time. For instance, if we consider meteorological data of Mauritius, the data collected are  varied considerably from region to region as well as accordingly throughout the year. For  example, we have more rainfall over regions on the Central Plateau compared with the  coastal regions as demonstrated by Figure (1.1) which illustrates the variation of rainfall  collected for Mauritius over distinct regions from 1960 1990.while figure 1.2 shows theà ‚  difference in signal data between the two classes of time series. All meteorological data  including temperature, wind speed, solar irradiance irradiance, sea pressure and many  more weather parameters similar to rainfall have variations both in time and location. Hence, we can conclude that meteorological data are non stationary in nature. Figure 1.1: Distribution of rainfall for Mauritius for the year 1961-1990 Source:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/maunc1/chap1/chapter1.htm Figure 1.2: Difference between stationary and non stationary series , Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stationaryprocess Time series modeling is a vast field of research. The analysis of time series signals can  be extrapolated to meet demands of analytical results and predicting results in various  fields, such as : Economical Climatological Biological   Financial and others Due to its implementation in various fields, continuous research are been done in order to  design model for forecasting with better accuracy and efficiency. The behaviour of time  series is governed by four main aspects namely trend, seasonal variation, cyclic variation  and random variation (Xu, 2012). Trend of time series can be pictured as the evolution of  the series over time and hence gives the forthcoming pathway of the data. Hence, trend  analysis is very efficient in predicting extensive behaviour of data. Phonetically, a general  assumption in most time series techniques is that the data are stationary. Transformation  of non stationary to stationary is often done to manipulate the data for analysis. Forecasting is of high precedence in application of time series as it can predict future  events based on past events, specially when using in the field of limited resources. Forecasting  may be classified as a prediction, a projection or estimate of a future activity. In  fact, we have two types of forecasting methods namely qualitatively and quantitatively. Qualitative methods are non mathematical computations whereas quantitative methods  are rather objective methods based on mathematical computations. 1.2 Motivation We belong to a world of success in which one of the leading factor to success is our ability  to predict the result of our choices making all of us in a way or another forecasters. Climate consists of one of the major applications of forecasting. Over years, newer and  better models are been investigated so as to improve forecasting accuracy as much as  possible. Investigating weather parameters is highly necessary so as to be able to predict  weather situations which are required in various fields such as aviation, shipping,  oceanography and agriculture. Moreover, it is helps to evade weather hazards. Mauritius  has being confronted to drastic changes in weather conditions recently. We have  already a weather station which is deploying its best methods for weather forecasting  but is unable to predict accurately unexpected changes in weather, for example the recent  flash flood in March 2013 or one of the most worst drought that stroke Mauritius  in 2002. Therefore, in order to prevent further incidents or life taking calamities, it is of  high importance to have accurate and early predictive models in order to take preventive  measures to make sure that the population is safe well before such events occur. This  project comprises of investigating a different method for forecasting meteorological data. Throughout this project we will be dealing with time series models based of data which  has been collected over years and try to foresee future events based on the fundamentals  patterns confined within those data. The most commonly used forecasting model for time series was the Box Jenkins  models (ARIMA and ARMA models) (Peel et al., 2014). They are non-static models that  are beneficial in forecasting changes in a process. Many models have further been developed  among which is listed the Hilbert Huang Transform (Huang and Shen, 2005). Since climate data are of nonlinear and non-stationary nature, Hilbert Huang Transform  is capable of improving accuracy of forecast since most previous traditional methods  are designed for stationary data while this method is efficient in both cases. On the other  hand, recognizing all the advantages of Artificial Neural Network, it is of no surprise that  this methodology has gained so much interest in the this field of application. ANN have  proven to be more effective, compared to other traditional methods such as Box-Jenkins,  regression models or any other models (Khashei and Bijari, 2009) as a tool for forecasting. Both successful models mentioned however carries their own associated percentage  error. As a means to minimize error, both models can be combined to give rise to a new  hybrid model with better performance capabilities. 1.3 Aims And Objectives 1. In this project, the aim is to develop a combined model from two completely different  computational models for forecasting namely Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition  and Artificial Neural Network so as to improve accuracy of future  predictions of time series data. 2. EEMD will be adopted as the decomposition technique to obtain a set of Intrinsic  Mode Functions (IMF) and residual for meteorological time series data for Mauritius  signal while ANN will be the forecasting tool which will take as input parameters  the non obsolete IMFs. The results obtained will be compared with real data in  order evaluate the performance of the model. The idea is to reduce error associated  with each model when employed separately as both models possess their own skill  in determining trend in complex data. 3. Eventually, the model will be applied to forecast meteorological data mainly rainfall  from MMS and wind speed from studies conducted by fellow colleagues. 1.4 Structure of Report   1. Chapter 2 consists of a literature review on the models and their applications 2. Chapter 3 introduces Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and validate the  EMD model. 3. Chapter 4 introduces the Artificial Neural Network and validate the network. 4. Chapter 5 present the results from application of EEMD to meteorological data. The  EEMD-ANN hybrid model is also introduced and validate. Finally the following is  applied to rainfall and wind speed data. 5. Chapter 6 presents the conclusion and the future work.

The Turbulent True Story of a First Year at Harvard Law School

INTRODUCTION One L is the first attempt at non fiction writing by Scott Turrow, an attorney by profession and a best selling novelist. Mr. He graduated from Harvard Law School and He has been a partner in the Chicago office of Sonnenschein Nath & Rosenthal, a national law firm, since 1986, Turrow has won multiple awards for his writings including the Heartland Prize in 2003 For â€Å"Reversible Errors† and the Robert F. Kennedy award in 2004 for Ultimate punishment. He is best known for his second non fictional work â€Å"The Ultimate Punishment† in which he discusses the death penalty.   He is currently a Member of Illinois' Executive Ethics Commission. Turrow’s fictional work is widely popular and although he confines his writing only to the murder mystery genre his work is commendable. Turrow’s reasons for finding this genre the most captivating are simple he says â€Å"Only in the mystery novel are we delivered final and unquestionable solutions. The joke to me is that fiction gives you a truth that reality can't deliver.† (Scott Turrow, 2001) SUMMARY Turrow in his book One L gives an account of what a first year law student goes through. Scott Turrow interprets the authenticity of the life of law students ubiquitously.   He describes an array of situations beginning of course with the excitement of being accepted into an Ivy League school, Harvard Law the most prestigious law school in the country. Mr. Turrow attended law school in the 70’s but he manages to narrate his story in a manner that seems enduring enough to keep a reader captivated all through the book he gets a tad dramatic at times giving details about everything one might experience in the first year of law college from the unusual kinds of students to the remarkable teachers, the stress the pressure even some horrific accounts about the way students are treated by the professors. It is common knowledge that Teachers in most law schools use the Socratic method of teaching which apparently comes as a surprise to Turrow The first year law students have to study the law of contracts, torts and criminal law.   â€Å"Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, the mornings we have Contracts . . . I'm nearly sick to my stomach. . . . I can't believe it, but I think about that class and I get ill,† writes turrow. As a common practice in colleges Turrow write about his study group. He also has ideas for improving the system and the overall experience of the first year law students. He suggests â€Å"brief writing, research, courtroom technique, document drafting, negotiation, client counseling, and the paramount task of gathering the facts.† Mr. Turow's study of the other students also appears rather outward and small-minded. The students are basically stereotyped into the â€Å"achievers†, â€Å"the complainers† â€Å"intellectuals,† â€Å"but who, in reality, are no more intellectual than a kindergartener with a crayon† and the professors who â€Å"harass† the students. He mentions nothing about the types of queries one comes across in a law school. He attended law school while he was married and his marital life added to the dilemmas of law school but what Mr. Turrow never mentions is that the average first year law student is not married his problems can not be compared to an average law student which eradicates the validity of the book as a true experience of an average student in addition to all these factors the fact that the seventies experience can not be compared to a present day experience should also be taken into account Another factor which is different in the present times compared to the time Turrow attended law school is the admissions procedure students planning to go to law school nowadays have the option of taking an editing test which means a lot of studying before the actual admissions meanwhile in the seventies students got admissions on the basis of their grades only Scotts work though comprehensive and interesting at times is nothing extraordinary much better books about first year experience as a law student have been written his style is true to his attorney self and drags the story along in mostly a negative tone giving the readers every horrific account possible with great insight into his own emotions and at times it almost sounds like he’s suggesting people should stop going to law schools just because the first year is tough. Mr. Turrow forgets to mention that for every student starting college being nervous is a natural thing and the first year of college anywhere is just a s tough as the first year of law school. Also an Ivy League school can not be compared to other schools. CONCLUSION Turrow’s story is completely subjective without any comprehensive insight into the facts of the situation and at times dramatic to the point of being annoying and pretentious, reading a book about another person’s life experience should open up a new world for the reader instead of imposing the author’s ideas. Perhaps it never occurred to Mr. Turrow that a school like Harvard would not change its 200 years old methods of teaching just because the first year students didn’t get a warm enough welcome at the school. Although Scott makes an honest effort to convey in the best possible way all his experiences he fails at achieving his goal. It’s an good enough book for students planning to go to law college but people with no interest in attending a law college would find this book over rated. WORKS CITED 1. Amazon inc (2006) book Review of One L: The Turbulent True Story of a First Year at Harvard Law School. Retrieved on 12th October 2006 from: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/customer-reviews 2. Scott Turrow (2006) biography of Scott Turrow. Retrieved on 12th October 2006 from:                  

Most Noticeable 5th Grade Writing Samples of Conclusion Paragraphs for a Compare and Contra

Most Noticeable 5th Grade Writing Samples of Conclusion Paragraphs for a Compare and Contra The Lost Secret of 5th Grade Writing Samples of Conclusion Paragraphs for a Compare and Contra You can do a mini-lesson with a little group. They'll be expected to turn and speak to their partner in this lesson. Turn and tell your partner another instance of a last sentence. Turn and tell your partner another means to compose this statement. The New Fuss About 5th Grade Writing Samples of Conclusion Paragraphs for a Compare and Contra The period conclusion denotes the end component of a bit of writing. I've been teaching five paragraph essay structure and everything which goes with it for a good deal of years now. The kids who want help will get it and the remainder of your class will get a refresher. You should have your reasons, and our principal concern is that you wind up getting an excellent grade. Look at all these mistakes. 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That's all you have to compose an outstanding introduction paragraph! What 5th Grade Writing Samples of Conclusion Paragraphs for a Compare and Contra Is - and What it Is Not The 3 body paragraphs are the basis of the essay. Moreover, an essay writer must also have the ability to present valid references on the arguments he would want to include in the paragraph. To assist you, you will use a template to make sure that you include all the essential components of a conclusion paragraph. 5th Grade Writing Samples of Conclusion Paragraphs for a Compare and Contra - the Story Discover how to compose a compare and contrast essay from us to be certain you think of an amazing academic paper, or even better, call us to find out more about buying one of our reasonably priced essays. I hope that after you read the rest of this blog post, you are going to have a good comprehension of how to teach and grade five paragraph essays. To make certain that you relate all the info you've researched in a thorough fashion, you must stick to the prescribed compare and contrast es say format by your professor or the academe. There are lots of factors that have to be considered if you wish to pick a workable and intriguing essay topic. The One Thing to Do for 5th Grade Writing Samples of Conclusion Paragraphs for a Compare and Contra They frequently restate the main idea expressed in the subject sentence. Same is true with ending sentences. If we return to our favourite subject paragraph a superior conclusion sentence would be, For every one of these reasons, math is my favourite subject. Here are a few characteristics that have writing effective concluding sentences. Also, bear in mind that you don't add anything new in concluding sentences. This sentence sets the tone for the remaining part of the paragraph. A concluding sentence shouldn't be too long or too short. 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Police Corruption and Misconduct Essay - 1684 Words

Police corruption and misconduct come apparent in many different forms. A basic definition for police corruption is, when an officer gets involved in offenses where the officer uses his or her position, by act or omission, to obtain improper financial benefit. The main reason for such corruption is typically for personal gain, such as bribery. Police abuse of authority occurs in three different general areas such as physical abuse, psychological abuse, and legal abuse. Physical abuse is such abuse where one uses excessive force or physical harassment. The psychological abuse occurs through disrespect, harassment, ridicule, excessive stops, or intimidation. Finally, legal abuse is abuse that occurs during unlawful search and seizure†¦show more content†¦This could occur if an officer sees an off duty police officer who is drunk driving, but does not take action in pulling them over and arrest them for their conduct. If he does, the streets are that much safer, but if he does n’t and the driver goes off and kills a person, that would make a bad use of selective enforcement (Lyman 2005). Many officers use alcohol and drugs while on duty. Although this commonly occurs in undercover agents, it can happen with even your regular patrol officers. This type of misconduct occurs because there is typically a lack of supervision, a massive availability of contraband, and an exposure to the criminal element. Graft on the other hand, is when the officer exploits their role by accepting bribes or money protection (Pollock, 2012). Such conduct occurs when officers use their uniformed authority to create a personal supply of money (Lyman 2005). Sexual misconduct occurs when officers use their authority as a way to receive sexual acts from citizens of society. This happens mainly with male officers towards female citizens. This type of misconduct also occurs within the department, mainly through sexual harassment of female officers. The final component of corrupt ion and misconduct is that of criminal cops. These officers have basically switched to criminal activity in their day to day tasks (Pollock, 2012). A perfect example of this happened in the movie Street Kings that we watched as a classShow MoreRelatedPolice Misconduct and Corruption2063 Words   |  9 PagesINTRODUCTION For as long as policing has existed in America, there has been misconduct and corruption associated with any given policing agency. Police officer malfeasance can range from minor cases of misconduct to the downright criminal acts that are considered to be corruption. 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